2009年9月18日 星期五

IPOs in 2009

The rationale for technical analysis

It is one year aniversary for the financial turmoil. By looking at the past comments in this blog, it is found that the prediction about the bottom of HSI was so precise.

Today, I would like to talk about the rationale for technical analysis.

Is it profitable by using TA? What makes TA able to beat the market?

Most the financial data have inertia in time series. That is there is some informations included in the lagged raw data. If we can dig for those informations beneath the surface of data, we can make use of TA to predict the future path of the time series. Especially in short run.

中國政府不會大幅放水的原因︰ 日前李克強已經表明不會大幅灌水救樓市及實體經濟。主要原因如下︰ 1.美國已表明會大幅加息,已經引致日元大幅貶值,日本出口自然能夠打擊中國出口 2.美國與中國息差已經大大擴大了,如果中國還大幅減息,資金必然大幅流出中國流向美國 3.人民幣與三大貨幣PE...